Tuesday, June 17, 2025

The Fracture Doctrine: Seven Fault Lines of Power Before the Fall

 

The clouds gather thick upon the geopolitical horizon.

This intelligence transmission includes seven critical flashpoints—each a potential trigger of disorder, collapse, or transformation between now and September 30, 2025.

This is a navigational document, not a prediction scroll. Conditions may evolve, and so must our awareness.

“History is a set of lies agreed upon.” — Napoleon Bonaparte

DUTCH UNCLE NARRATIVE

You’re not crazy for sensing the pressure. Systems are buckling. The players are circling. The grand chessboard is now bloodstained, not metaphorically but literally.

Those who cling to legacy narratives—U.S. dominance, institutional credibility, global stability—are being groomed for betrayal.

What follows is not fear-mongering. It is strategic candor.

You asked for clarity.

I deliver it below—ruthless in insight, grounded in pattern recognition, baptized in both scripture and shadow.


“For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places.” — Matthew 24:7 (ESV)

SEVEN STRATEGIC HOTSPOTS (with Sept. 30, 2025 Outlooks)

1. Ukraine–Russia War Escalation

Status: Stalemate-turned-stormfront
Risk Factors: U.S./NATO weapon fatigue, internal Russian destabilization, Ukrainian counter-resilience, nuclear provocation threshold.
Outlook:

  • Likelihood of major escalation: 60%

  • Black swan risk: Tactical nuclear use or Belarus front opens
    Notes: Zelensky’s regime is losing Western favor. Russian forces grind forward in Donetsk. Ukraine’s draft-age population is depleted. Putin’s gamble deepens. West may quietly negotiate an off-ramp behind closed doors.


2. China–Taiwan Tensions

Status: Simmering toward kinetic
Risk Factors: U.S. naval maneuvers, chip industry choke points, 2025 Taiwanese elections, PLA readiness.
Outlook:

  • Likelihood of blockade/sabotage: 50%

  • Full invasion by Sept. 30: 20%
    Notes: China prefers gray-zone domination—economic strangulation and cyberwarfare over invasion. Yet miscalculation remains a live wire.


3. Israel–Iran Proxy War Expansion

Status: From shadows to salvos
Risk Factors: Hezbollah front, Syrian entrenchment, Persian Gulf blockade risk, internal unrest in both nations.
Outlook:

  • Likelihood of wider regional war: 70%

  • Saudi normalization scuttled: Confirmed
    Notes: Iran-backed militias embolden; Netanyahu leans into brinkmanship to preserve power. U.S. carriers in the Mediterranean are now targets, not deterrents.


4. U.S. Civil Unraveling & Election Chaos (2024 Fallout)

Status: Post-election constitutional crisis expected
Risk Factors: Mail-in ballot rejection, contested electors, AI deepfake influence ops, SCOTUS ambiguity.
Outlook:

  • Likelihood of political paralysis: 80%

  • Civil unrest incidents (Aug–Sept): Highly likely
    Notes: Neither Biden nor Trump can unify the country post-election. Secret Service on high alert. Watch Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin for flashpoints.

    "In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way."

    — Franklin D. Roosevelt


5. Collapse in West Africa / Sahel Region

Status: Junta proliferation & jihadist surge
Risk Factors: Niger coup contagion, French withdrawal, Wagner Group influx, UN irrelevance.
Outlook:

  • Likelihood of regional war: 65%

  • Food/fuel instability spread to EU: 45%
    Notes: Africa is no longer the forgotten theater. It’s the next battleground for multipolar competition. Gold, uranium, migration flows all at stake.


6. Global Supply Chain Breakdown (Red Sea, Panama, and Suez)

Status: Triple chokepoint syndrome
Risk Factors: Houthi drone strikes, low water levels, Suez sabotage, underwater cable disruption.
Outlook:

  • Likelihood of severe disruptions: 75%

  • Agricultural & medical supply impact: Growing
    Notes: The global just-in-time model is gasping. Shipping costs have quadrupled in some lanes. Watch India, Australia, and Japan as alternate trade nodes.

    "Those who do not move, do not notice their chains."

    — Rosa Luxemburg


7. BRICS+ De-Dollarization Advance

Status: Currency rebellion gains traction
Risk Factors: Digital Yuan rollout, gold-backed trade nodes, dollar weaponization backlash.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Outlook:

  • Likelihood of major energy deals bypassing USD: 85%

  • Petrodollar collapse event before Q4: 35%
    Notes: Saudi Arabia joined BRICS in name and action. The IMF and BIS scramble to slow the pivot, but momentum has shifted east and south.

    “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated.” — Chuck Prince, Citigroup CEO (pre-2008 collapse)

What appears as chaos is often choreography. The architects of collapse are both visible and veiled.

Use discernment, not dopamine. Track signal, not spectacle. Prepare—logistically, spiritually, relationally.

“The shrewd person sees the danger and conceals himself, But the inexperienced keep right on going and suffer the consequences.” — Proverbs 27:12 (NWT)

I also invite you to take a look at this site- www.whatfinger.com

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